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Mortgage Danger Since 1990 – AEI

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This paper supplies a complete account of the evolution of default threat for newly originated residence buy loans since 1990. We convey collectively a number of knowledge sources to provide this historical past, together with loan-level knowledge for your entire GSE e book. We use these knowledge to trace numerous mortgage traits and a abstract measure of threat, the pressured default fee. Among the many many leads to the paper, we present that mortgage threat had already risen within the 1990s, planting the seeds of the monetary disaster nicely earlier than the precise occasion. Our outcomes additionally solid doubt on explanations of the disaster that target low-credit-score debtors. The combination collection we current on this paper can be found for obtain at https:/www.fhfa.gov/papers/wp1902.aspx.

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