Toledo vs. Buffalo Prediction: Betting Odds, Spread & Pick


Buffalo running back Jaret Patterson

MACtion has returned. Toledo and Buffalo square off in week three of the annual MAC midweek tradition. Despite outscoring Northern Illinois 21-3 in th fourth quarter, the Rockets could not get a win in their last game, falling to the Huskies 31-28 on a field goal in the final minute. The loss dropped Toledo to 6-4 on the season, and with three conference losses, they are all but eliminated from winning the division title. Buffalo is also bowl eligible, but will also not be playing in the MAC championship game thanks to an earlier loss this season to Miami (Ohio). The Bulls is also licking their wounds after a gut punch, allowing Kent State to score 24 points in the fourth quarter in a 30-27 stunner last week.

We break down the line and offer our best bets and predictions for this matchup between two in-state rivals.  

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Toledo at Buffalo Game Details

Date: Wednesday, November 20
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: UB Stadium (Buffalo, NY)
TV: ESPN2
Spread: Buffalo -8
Total: 54

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook


Line Movement

This line opened at Buffalo -6.5 and has been bet up to Buffalo -8 at some books, according to VegasInsider.com. The action is relatively split with the Rockets both teams getting 50% of the bets and the Rockets 51% of the money, according to The Action Network.

The total opened at 53.5 and has been up slightly to 54 with 80% of the bets and 92% of the money coming in on the over.


Betting Trends

  • Toledo is 5-5 ATS this season
  • Buffalo is 4-6 ATS this season
  • Over is 6-4 in Toledo games this season
  • Over is 6-4 in Buffalo games this season
  • Toledo is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games
  • Over is 4-0 in Toledo’s last 4 conference games
  • Toledo is 1-5 in the last 6 meetings

*All betting trends are courtesy of Covers


Prediction & Pick

Of all the MACtion games on the card, this has been the toughest to handicap. I’m not sure which side will be more motivated, as both teams are bowl eligible and both are eliminated from conference title contention. Buffalo still has one home game remaining next week, so it there won’t be any emotional pregame “Senior Day” festivities. Frankly, the trends are where I would bank my money on here. Toledo has struggled on the road this season and has failed to cover the number in their last four games away from home. Buffalo running back Jaret Patterson has been sensational this season, with 1,136 yards on the ground and seven touchdowns. The Rockets are struggling to stop the run, allowing 200.1 yards per game on the ground. That decisive mismatch in the trenches should prove to be the difference in this one, but I will admit, swallowing eight points in a game featuring two relatively even teams is scary. Look to wait or maybe play it in-game and lay fewer points, but I do believe the Bulls get the win.

PICK: Buffalo -8 (-110)


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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith






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